A Recap and Evaluation of my Predictions for 2023
How Did I do?
Every year, I, like so many others, make predictions on what will happen in the recruiting and talent space for the next year. I will share my 2024 predictions next week, but this week, I will recap and rate my predictions for 2023. How
did I do?
Why are predictions useful?
Good predictions are simply interpretations of trends. To be accurate, they require an understanding of historical precedents, demographics, economics, the labor market, corporate mindsets, and broad social trends. Used carefully and with the knowledge that predictions are probabilities, not absolutes. They can guide strategy and help us think outside our traditional boundaries. They often throw light on trends that may not seem to be important but turn out to be critical.
Here are the predictions I made for 2023. You should ask yourself: How would these have guided my thinking? Would I have made (or maybe did you make) changes in my strategy or actions because of these? Did they point me to think about something I had ignored or did not think important?
This is how I rate myself on each
#1. Hiring would remain robust in 2023.
My reasoning was that talent remains constrained, and even with layoffs, firms would continue to seek people with needed skills. I gave this a 95% probability of happening. The demand for talent in the US and mostly everywhere has been strong. Hiring grew throughout the year despite a rise in interest rates and the fear of a recession. Result: 100% on target